The escalating trade war between the United States and Canada has once again placed the electricity industry under potential impact, at a time when consumers are already facing heavy economic pressure.

After President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods took effect over the weekend, Canada is expected to announce retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods on Tuesday, with more measures potentially to follow.

On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the Associated Press that "all options are on the table," including completely halting the province's critical mineral and electricity exports. According to BBC reports, Ford said he discussed with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carneythe possibility of a 25% tariff on U.S. electricity.

Looking back at 2025, during a previous trade dispute, Ontario imposed a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the United States. Shortly thereafter, tensions eased between the two sides, and the tariff was rescinded one day after taking effect.

ISO New England, in a statement to Utility Dive, said that if Canada chooses to reduce or terminate electricity trade, it "does not anticipate reliability issues due to reduced imports, at least under typical weather conditions."

However, the grid operator added that under extreme temperature conditions, supply in New England "could become tight, but this depends on many factors that are difficult to predict."

"It is also important to note that electricity now flows bidirectionally between New England and neighboring Canadian provinces," the statement continued. "If Canadian provinces reduce (or completely cut off) electricity deliveries to New England, we expect the impact to be primarily financial, manifesting as higher wholesale market prices. At the same time, we expect emissions in the region to increase as well."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) earlier this month highlighted the growing value of electricity and natural gas trade between the United States and Canada.

"In 2025, total electricity trade between the United States and Canada amounted to $3.2 billion, of which67% was electricity imported from Canada to the United States," EIA analysts noted. Electricity trade between the two countries "is relatively small compared to other energy trade."

However, the electricity industries of the two countries are now more interconnected than ever. In June of this year, the longest fully buried transmission line in North America began delivering Canadian hydropower to New York City. This $6 billion Champlain-Hudson Power Express is expected tomeet up to 20% of New York City's electricity demand。

Kevin Lanahan, Senior Vice President of External Affairs and Corporate Communications at the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), said in a statement to Utility Dive that the organization maintains "close and regular contact" with Hydro Quebec and the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO).

Lanahan said: "NYISO expects to have sufficient supply to meet the anticipated demand on the system."

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include comments from NYISO spokesperson Kevin Lanahan.