Key Takeaways

  • U.S. HVAC market central air conditioners and heat pump shipments in April exceeded year-ago levels. According to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), gas furnaces and water heaters generally saw declines, but the commercial sector remained resilient.
  • Combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in April rose 5.1% year over year to 837,098 units, the latest month for which AHRI has data. Air-source heat pump shipments grew 1.8% to 380,888 units.
  • April's performance contrasts with the weak trend seen year-to-date: combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments in the first four months fell 3.5% year over year. Heat pumps remained a bright spot, with shipments up 1.2% year-to-date, surpassing 1.3 million units cumulatively.

Deep Dive

Heat pumps continue to gain market traction because technological advances have made them capable of providing heating and cooling for any building in the U.S., experts say.

"There are some old concerns," said Ian Shapiro, professor of practice in mechanical and aerospace engineering at Syracuse University, in an interview last year. "Forty years ago, single-speed heat pumps couldn't maintain operation in cold weather, and I think we're still paying for that bad experience... Additionally, fossil fuel companies and utilities have invested heavily because they don't want to give up oil and gas sales."

On June 8, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with the Trump administration and natural gas industry interests, sending a case involvingpotential bans on non-condensing commercial gas water heaters and residential gas furnacesback to the federal appeals court for reconsideration.

This means two energy efficiency rules finalized by the Department of Energy (DOE) in 2023 and 2024—which would effectively push non-condensing versions of these appliances out of the market—must undergo further legal review.

The Appliance Standards Awareness Project said in an email statement that even if the ruling prolongs the legal process around the bans, it is unlikely to change the final outcome, so heat pumps may continue to benefit from ongoing electrification trends.

"I can heat any building in the U.S. with a heat pump without a backup system and without any issues, because today's heat pumps are variable-speed," Shapiro said. "When it's cold outside, they speed up, and they're designed to operate at very low temperatures, well below 0 degrees Fahrenheit."

"They don't shut down until minus 20 degrees Fahrenheit, and they have built-in defrost," Greg Asbaty, Mid-Atlantic regional technical service manager at Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US, told Facilities Dive. "We've seen... them buried in snow, with the defrost heat melting an igloo shape around them. Now they're required to operate in much harsher conditions than in the past."

The growing popularity of heat pumps also stems from their dual heating and cooling function, meaning suppliers traditionally focused on the cooling industry are now venturing into heating as well, one supplier said.

"People are buying heat pumps purely for heating, treating air conditioning as a bonus," Asbaty said.

Although overall gas storage water heater shipments declined in April, commercial shipments rose 10.4% year over year and were up 4.7% year-to-date. Commercial electric storage water heater shipments fell 7.8% in April and were down 1.4% in the first four months year over year.

During the same period, U.S. gas warm-air furnace shipments fell 11.6%, totaling 966,919 units through April, compared with 1,093,683 units in the same period of 2025. Year-to-date, oil warm-air furnace shipments still outperformed last year, up 11.4%.

According to AHRI, its shipment statistics are compiled from participating member manufacturers and cover more than 90% of North American production and sales of air conditioning, heating, water heating, and commercial refrigeration equipment.